Hurricane forecasts: Good headlines, bad science

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Hurricane forecasts: Good headlines, bad science

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The 2005 hurricane season was clearly unprecedented and took a huge toll on our country and those whose lives and livelihoods were impacted. The only silver lining was raising the level of awareness among consumers, the news media and policymakers as well as local, state and federal governments.

One byproduct of this growing awareness is a much higher degree of interest among the general public in understanding and predicting what's going to happen this year. Unfortunately, this is spawning a new wave of individuals and organizations who bill themselves as experts, publicly issuing predictions that not only speculate on the number of hurricanes the USA will experience this season but also the specific regions where the storms will make landfall.

The news media love pre-season predictions, but they provide a misdirected focus. The question should not be "How many?" but, instead, "Are you prepared?"

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Here's a article written on predicting hurricanes by the weather channels president. According to Debora, hurricane forecasters do not know enough to predict where a hurricane will hit. This leads to a false sense of security for residents in other areas.
By YCON: posted on 8-6-2006








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