Washington vrs Tehran the behind the scenes battle

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Washington vrs Tehran the behind the scenes battle

Sometimes its hard to read an entire article like this and take it all in, but this succintly and logically sets out the antecedents and the resons for the current situation

 http://www.debka.com/articl...

some quotes....

... Quote:
This determination was sparked by an unnoticed incident in Iraq on July 4, 2006.

On that day, for the first time in the Iraq War, Nasrallah activated the three-year old sleeper terror and sabotage networks Iranian and Hizballah intelligence had established across Iraq shortly after the US invasion. He was obeying orders from Iranian supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

America’s Day of Independence 2006 was selected for this group to make its first low-key attacks against US forces in Baghdad and British units in Basra and break surface under the name of The Abu al Fadal al Abas Brigades.

No one had heard of it because Tehran had kept this Iraqi arm of Hizballah dark as the ultimate weapon to spring on the Americans in Iraq at the appropriate moment.

President Bush saw that if he looked away and let Iran’s challenge burst into full-blown action without responding, America’s standing in Iraq and the rest of the region would be forfeit. He was further stirred into a response by Tehran’s developing appetite for quick gains.

On July 12, believing they had got away with it in Iraq, Iran and Hizballah followed it up by opening a second front against Israel, America’s ally: the Shiite terrorists kidnapped two Israeli soldiers.

That was the last straw, but George W. Bush turned it around as a boomerang to hit Tehran. The Israeli Defense Forces, there to hand, were more than ready to punish Hizballah and had been raring to go after five years of forced restraint against the Lebanese group and Palestinian terrorists.

For Bush, this course offered America the chance of a bold, efficient blow against a Shiite extremist terrorist group without a single American soldier having to step onto the battlefield.

Therefore, Israel’s Operation Just Reward, which started out as a rescue operation for its two abducted soldiers, then a campaign to push Hizballah back from its border, within six days opened Lebanon up as a major arena for the showdown building up between the United States and Tehran over a whole bagful of issues - not least Iran’s nuclear defiance.

However, the unacknowledged object of Israel’s campaign is none of the highly rational goals outlined by officials. It is to satisfy Washington that Tehran has been given a bloody nose and is ready to pull back from its deepening political, military and intelligence interference in Iraq.
By netchicken: posted on 18-7-2006

excellent article, it shows the bigger picture of what is happening with this new war. The part that bothers me is they don't know what will happen. I believe Iran will ok the long range missiles and cause great damage in Israel.
By YCON: posted on 19-7-2006

I find that the article tries to make a case but makes too many presumptions. For one, they try to equate the Iran's political clout with the US which is absurd, no matter what the US does in Iraq; Iran knows its limits. Next the article tries to portray that Iran in fact has a disciplined network of covert organizations at its beck and call, which is again far from the truth. The Hezbollah have over the years steadily moved away form being the Iranian state's puppet to an independent entity on to its own, no longer prescribing to the Kommeni doctrine of Shia "revivalism". Rather Hezbollah sees itself as a "master organization" for anti-Israel aggression, the confluence of Islamic world's "rage" towards the Jewish "maculation" in the middle east. Politically hezbollah holds almost a veto power in the Lebanese government, which was never its intended purpose.

While blaming Iran and Syria seems logical. I am somehow skeptical because the act of kidnapping Israeli soldiers (2 of them) lacks any military, strategic or political advantages for any in the region. In fact it grants credibility to any Israeli response against Syria, Hezbollah or Iran. Neither Syria nor Iran can be thought to be so naive as to actually believe that Israel has weakened since its last conflict or that it wouldn’t retaliate after its response in Gaza. It is Iran and Syria that would face greater international scrutiny, which they would like to avoid at this time. Even the "custodians of the two Holy Mosques" (Saudi Arabia) have condemned the acts of the Hezbollah, which is quite remarkable.

Even for Hezbollah this would be very costly as this would give the IDF permission to sanitize southern Lebanon, which Israel has been itching to do for a long time, especially with the rise of the Hezbollah since the 80's in Lebanon; politically, militarily and economically. All this while the Hezbollah have been content with exporting Rocket and other technologies to the HAmas and other groups while advancing politically and economically, why then this sudden exuberance ? It makes little sense. A command from the Ayatollah? But what is the logic behind that ??

I think this kidnapping is merely an act of foolish bravado by some independent Hezbollah fighters as a symbol of defiance to Israel's campaign in Gaza. An act that has inevitably culminated into an all out offensive. I cant see any other motive for this other than an act of impulse rather than reason.


... Quote:

I believe Iran will ok the long range missiles and cause great damage in Israel.

Not unless Iran wants a hail of cruise missiles with possible nuclear warheads!
By IAF: posted on 20-7-2006

Wow, good post IAF, I like your analysis.

Its hard to say from a distance how emeshed the politics of the Middle East are. Is Hezbollah, really just Irans glove puppet? Obviously some seem to think so, but that may just be political expediency. There is no doubt however that Syria has been passing munitions to hezbollah, and those munitions initially came from Iran. (But then how many american weapons have been used against the west?).

That translated speach between Bush and Blair seem to indicate that on a peronal level, Syria seems to be behind the situation, or the continuing of the situation at present.

I think there is a history of Israel and its opponents doing prisoner swaps. That may have been the initial Palastianin agenda. However this time Israel changed the rules, and didn't want to play.

Hezbollah may have come onboard as a way of supporting the palastinians, and opening another front to aggravate Israel.

However it seems the ferocity of response from Israel has caugh them both by suprise. I am sure in hindsight Hezbollah would't make the same decision a second time, not considering the massive setback they have suffered. Maybe the palastinians might repeat the kidnapping, seems when you think you have nothing, you have nothing to lose.

So why didn't Israel play the game this time? I had been reading prior to this how the army had their hands tied when responding to missile attacks, and how "unfair" they thought it was.

Here is an article from last month talking about how the military were muzzled.

 http://www.debka.com/articl...

Something has happened since then that let them off the leash ...
By netchicken: posted on 20-7-2006








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