Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev and Iran\'s victory

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Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev and Iran's victory

I just thought I'd mention the reasons why Israel went to war against the terrorist organization's army. Some might not even know the men's names, just know them as "the two soldiers who were kidnapped".
They have not been released.

Another thing that seems to be forgotten is that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that is trained and equipped by Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and that members of the Guard have even been killed during this war.
Another thing to remember is that Ahmadinejad has even admitted arming Hezbollah with weapons, including the Zelzal 1, which is capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

While we are remembering some basic facts of this war, let's also remember that the weapons and other logistical support is passed through Iran's willing accomplice, Syria. As a matter of fact, the supply line is cut off at the moment by the IAF, but as soon as this cease fire resolution takes effect, the supply chain will be repaired, and supplies are waiting at the Syrian border right now.

To put it in a nutshell, a terrorist organization that is openly supported by two countries attacked a soveriegn nation, killed and kidnapped people and has lobbed hundreds of rockets into that sovereign nation, and the world demands a cease fire rather than helping in the destruction of that organization.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, a liberal who is not chock-full of military know-how, allowed this military operation become a flop for Israel. One of the world's best military power is going to come out of this looking as if it was fought to a stalemate by a group of highly-trained terrorists when the truth of the matter is that the military is fine, it is the government that is weak and inaffective.

Speaking of weak and inaffective, does anyone else remember something about some so-called "War on Teror" that is supposed to be an hot issue with the U.S. government? I think I remember hearing the U.S. President Bush saying something about going after the terrorists and their sponsors, no matter where they are. It really seems there is a limit to the words "no matter" when it comes to this particular terror group. The this U.S. administration has been more than willing to go to countries like Afghanistan and Iraq in order to fight terrorists and force democracy, but it seems that being more assertive and taking an active role in helping beat an organization that makes al Qaada look like a boyscout troop is beyond ability. What a shame.

So, what is going to be the outcome of this campaign? Well, what is not going to be the outcome is a destroyed or even disabled Hezbollah, and what has not occured is a realease of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, and what has not been forced into silence is Hezbollah's rocket-firing capability. Today alone, Hezbollah fired over 250 rockets into Israel; a new record for them.

The outcome of this war is very clear to me. Olmert did not accomplish what he set out to do, and now Hezbollah will have even more favor in a war-torn Lebanon and will secure even more seats in the Lebanese government.
The government of Iran will now appear even stronger to the rest of the region after openly attacking Israel through its proxy army and diverting attention away from its nuclear program in such an audacious way.
The government of the U.S. appears to be weak and the reason might well be because the U.S. military is stretched too thin to take on another military mission.

Make no mistake, the bad guys won, and if the soldiers are released, it is only because the bad guys see a PR benefit in doing so.
By Thomas_Crowne: posted on 14-8-2006

This article seems to provide some background to your post above. Of course its only opinion, but still an interesting direction...

In the days after Hezbollah crossed from Lebanon into Israel, on July 12th, to kidnap two soldiers, triggering an Israeli air attack on Lebanon and a full-scale war, the Bush Administration seemed strangely passive.

“It’s a moment of clarification,” President George W. Bush said at the G-8 summit, in St. Petersburg, on July 16th. “It’s now become clear why we don’t have peace in the Middle East.”

He described the relationship between Hezbollah and its supporters in Iran and Syria as one of the “root causes of instability,” and subsequently said that it was up to those countries to end the crisis. Two days later, despite calls from several governments for the United States to take the lead in negotiations to end the fighting, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that a ceasefire should be put off until “the conditions are conducive.”

The Bush Administration, however, was closely involved in the planning of Israel’s retaliatory attacks. President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced, current and former intelligence and diplomatic officials told me, that a successful Israeli Air Force bombing campaign against Hezbollah’s heavily fortified underground-missile and command-and-control complexes in Lebanon could ease Israel’s security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential American preëmptive attack to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations, some of which are also buried deep underground.

Israeli military and intelligence experts I spoke to emphasized that the country’s immediate security issues were reason enough to confront Hezbollah, regardless of what the Bush Administration wanted.

Shabtai Shavit, a national-security adviser to the Knesset who headed the Mossad, Israel’s foreign-intelligence service, from 1989 to 1996, told me, “We do what we think is best for us, and if it happens to meet America’s requirements, that’s just part of a relationship between two friends. Hezbollah is armed to the teeth and trained in the most advanced technology of guerrilla warfare. It was just a matter of time. We had to address it.”

Hezbollah is seen by Israelis as a profound threat—a terrorist organization, operating on their border, with a military arsenal that, with help from Iran and Syria, has grown stronger since the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon ended, in 2000. Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has said he does not believe that Israel is a “legal state.”

Israeli intelligence estimated at the outset of the air war that Hezbollah had roughly five hundred medium-range Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets and a few dozen long-range Zelzal rockets; the Zelzals, with a range of about two hundred kilometres, could reach Tel Aviv. (One rocket hit Haifa the day after the kidnappings.) It also has more than twelve thousand shorter-range rockets. Since the conflict began, more than three thousand of these have been fired at Israel.

According to a Middle East expert with knowledge of the current thinking of both the Israeli and the U.S. governments, Israel had devised a plan for attacking Hezbollah—and shared it with Bush Administration officials—well before the July 12th kidnappings.

“It’s not that the Israelis had a trap that Hezbollah walked into,” he said, “but there was a strong feeling in the White House that sooner or later the Israelis were going to do it.”

The Middle East expert said that the Administration had several reasons for supporting the Israeli bombing campaign. Within the State Department, it was seen as a way to strengthen the Lebanese government so that it could assert its authority over the south of the country, much of which is controlled by Hezbollah.

He went on, “The White House was more focussed on stripping Hezbollah of its missiles, because, if there was to be a military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities, it had to get rid of the weapons that Hezbollah could use in a potential retaliation at Israel. Bush wanted both.

Bush was going after Iran, as part of the Axis of Evil, and its nuclear sites, and he was interested in going after Hezbollah as part of his interest in democratization, with Lebanon as one of the crown jewels of Middle East democracy.”
By netchicken: posted on 14-8-2006

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